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AI’s Growth Curve: Faster Than the Early Internet

Bond’s report, “Trends – Artificial Intelligence,” points to an adoption curve that outpaces the Internet’s earliest boom years (read the full report here). ChatGPT alone hit 800 million weekly active users in just 17 months, a milestone that took mainstream web services far longer to reach. This break-neck growth is driving unparalleled demand for AI infrastructure, capital, and talent.

CapEx Soars as Costs Shift from Training to Inference

A striking dynamic in the report is the tug-of-war between rising training budgets and plunging inference costs. Training a frontier model can now run into hundreds of millions—or even billions—of dollars. Yet the cost to serve each token continues to free-fall thanks to hardware and algorithmic gains. That divergence fuels new product launches but complicates monetization strategies for general-purpose LLMs.

Competitive Landscape: Incumbents, Attackers, and a China-US “Space Race”

The AI market is no longer dominated by a handful of tech giants:

• Incumbents are doubling down with massive data-center builds and proprietary models.

• Open-source projects close performance gaps, democratizing capabilities and applying pricing pressure.

• China is rapidly matching U.S. benchmarks—often on domestic silicon—highlighting a geopolitical contest where AI leadership equates to broader economic influence.

From Screen to Street: AI’s Physical-World Integration

Beyond digital chat and code, AI agents are powering autonomous vehicles, agricultural robots, defense platforms, and smart factories. This physical integration demands specialized chips, edge devices, and resilient supply chains—spurring another wave of infrastructure CapEx that reaches well beyond cloud servers.

Workforce Disruption and Opportunity

Bond notes a steep rise in AI-related job postings and tool adoption. While productivity gains are clear, the automation of mid-skill cognitive tasks could displace millions of roles. Companies and policymakers must tackle re-skilling at scale—an area where mentor-style platforms (think ibl.ai’s AI Mentor) can deliver guided, practical AI literacy to bridge emerging skill gaps.

The Next Billion Users Could Arrive via AI-Native Interfaces

The report envisions future Internet entrants bypassing traditional app ecosystems, connecting through conversational AI interfaces delivered over expanding satellite networks. If realized, this would fundamentally rewrite playbooks for product design, content delivery, and global digital inclusion.

Balancing Innovation and Sustainability

Finally, Bond highlights a looming tension: exponential demand for compute colliding with finite energy and supply-chain constraints. Sustainable chip design, smarter data-center cooling, and algorithmic efficiency are no longer optional—they’re prerequisites for AI’s next act.

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Conclusion

Mary Meeker and her co-authors paint a picture of AI that is bigger, faster, and more consequential than any prior tech wave. From skyrocketing CapEx to transformative workplace tools and a high-stakes geopolitical rivalry, the sector’s trajectory demands proactive strategy from builders, investors, and educators alike.

To explore the comprehensive data, charts, and commentary, download the full report: Bond’s “Trends – Artificial Intelligence.”